A research dispatch from an anti-overfitting lab.
Not market commentary. Not signals. Not alpha spam. Each month we send what we learned tearing strategies apart — the invalidations, the fragility traps, the methodology. The part nobody else publishes.
The same four sections, every month
A predictable structure, like an institutional research note — not a stream of whatever is trending.
Invalidation of the month
One hypothesis we tested and rejected, with its IS/OOS results and the exact reason it broke. Straight from the Graveyard.
Fragility lesson
A recurring way backtests deceive — overfitting, concentration, regime dependence, cost blindness — explained from real cases.
Pipeline progress
What moved in the research pipeline: new hypotheses entering, verdicts reached, methodology refined. Real state, no filler.
Methodology note
A short, practical principle from our validation framework you can apply to your own research before risking capital.
Findings, not forecasts
- 01Why Funding Rate Arbitrage collapsed out-of-sample
- 02When apparent diversification is an illusion
- 03The units bug that nearly faked a 15% APR
- 04How a 1bp threshold quietly filters adverse regimes
- 05Why we elevate random selection over best-performers
- 06Reading IS→OOS degradation honestly
- · One considered dispatch per month
- · Real invalidations and methodology
- · Written for researchers and allocators
- · Unsubscribe in one click, any time
- · Price predictions or signals
- · "Alpha", urgency, or FOMO
- · Daily noise or market commentary
- · Anything we wouldn't stand behind
Be there when the first strategy survives.
So far: 0 of 4 made it past out-of-sample. Every verdict lands in your inbox — survivors and casualties alike. Free, no spam, unsubscribe anytime.
Join researchers and allocators who prefer method over hype.